2004/11/03

The political anti-psychic

I was joking with Mrs. G about the election, saying that the one sure-fire way to tell who's going to win is to ask me for a prediction, then say the opposite.

It's true! I've been alive for ten elections now, and able to form a coherent opinion for eight of them (zip it, you).

I predicted Ford would beat Carter in 76. Wrong.
I predicted Carter would beat Reagan in 80. Wrong.
I predicted Reagan would beat Mondale in 84. Right!!
I predicted Bush would beat Dukakis in 88. Right!!
I predicted Bush would beat Clinton in 92. Wrong.
I predicted Clinton would beat Dole in 96. Right!!
I predicted Gore would beat Bush in 00. Wrong.
I predicted Kerry would beat Bush in 04. Looks pretty wrong at this point.

That's 3/8, or a score of 38%. D!

There. Forget polling, you newspaper people. Just ask me and print the opposite of what I say.

How accurate have your predictions been over the years? Who'd you guess wrong about? Here are the results from earlier elections if you can't remember.
Comments:
I always think my side can't possibly lose, I'm usually so convinced of my rightness that I can't imagine that at least most reasonable people will see the things I do, and therefore vote the way I do. It really irritates me that all this confidence/arrogance translates to being so very very wrong.
 
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